Comments on: How Big Is Too Big: The One TB Disk http://storagemojo.com/2006/08/21/how-big-is-too-big-the-one-tb-disk/ Data storage info & analysis Fri, 21 Nov 2008 23:33:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Steve Young http://storagemojo.com/2006/08/21/how-big-is-too-big-the-one-tb-disk/#comment-103234 Steve Young Fri, 03 Aug 2007 06:26:23 +0000 http://storagemojo.com/?p=225#comment-103234 The very rate of this acceleration into the future is increasing, so people will be wondering what we will possibly do with a petabyte in a pc, in even less time than it took to go from a MB to a GB. Then Exabytes... Obviously we don't need this kind of storage for most current applications of storage - like the ability to store more text. New abilities elicit new applications. A major hurdle in the way of creating streaming three-dimensional virtual reality, for instance, is that we don't yet have enough storage capacity, bandwidth, or processor capacity. 64K ought to be enough for anybody. The very rate of this acceleration into the future is increasing, so people will be wondering what we will possibly do with a petabyte in a pc, in even less time than it took to go from a MB to a GB. Then Exabytes… Obviously we don’t need this kind of storage for most current applications of storage - like the ability to store more text. New abilities elicit new applications. A major hurdle in the way of creating streaming three-dimensional virtual reality, for instance, is that we don’t yet have enough storage capacity, bandwidth, or processor capacity. 64K ought to be enough for anybody.

]]> By: Robin Harris http://storagemojo.com/2006/08/21/how-big-is-too-big-the-one-tb-disk/#comment-6087 Robin Harris Fri, 25 Aug 2006 03:48:50 +0000 http://storagemojo.com/?p=225#comment-6087 Joerg, don't you have to run into <b>TWO</b> non-recoverable errors in a RAID array to have a problem? 10^14 is 1 in 1 hundred trillion bits, or 12.5 TB. That is a lot of 1 TB drives . . . . Rich, while I love the prediction, I'm having trouble buying it. For a 35% delta to evaporate in 12 months just seems <b>really optimistic</b>. I guess I need to sign up for Storage Markets and help straighten all you wild-eyed optimists out. Cheers! Joerg, don’t you have to run into TWO non-recoverable errors in a RAID array to have a problem? 10^14 is 1 in 1 hundred trillion bits, or 12.5 TB. That is a lot of 1 TB drives . . . .

Rich, while I love the prediction, I’m having trouble buying it. For a 35% delta to evaporate in 12 months just seems really optimistic. I guess I need to sign up for Storage Markets and help straighten all you wild-eyed optimists out. Cheers!

]]> By: Rich http://storagemojo.com/2006/08/21/how-big-is-too-big-the-one-tb-disk/#comment-6085 Rich Thu, 24 Aug 2006 23:07:39 +0000 http://storagemojo.com/?p=225#comment-6085 Folks, The traders on www.storagemarkets.com have voiced their collective opinion that cost parity of 2.5" 10K drives will crossover with 3.5" 15K drives in either 2Q or 3QCY07. If this prediction holds true, End Users may start to look at enclosures that have 2.5" slots in a new light, which could create some interesting purchasing dynamics next year. For those of you who don't know about www.storagemarkets.com, this is a new market intelligence tool that is designed to help storage companies make better strategic decisions. The concept is to bring together a cross company community of storage industry professionals to play in a virtual stock market where the stocks themselves represent specific outcomes for future technological developments. This technique is known as a 'predictive market,' and it has been successfully employed to predict election results and box office receipts. Trading is free and anonymous, so feel free to join! Rich Folks,

The traders on http://www.storagemarkets.com have voiced their collective opinion that cost parity of 2.5″ 10K drives will crossover with 3.5″ 15K drives in either 2Q or 3QCY07. If this prediction holds true, End Users may start to look at enclosures that have 2.5″ slots in a new light, which could create some interesting purchasing dynamics next year.

For those of you who don’t know about http://www.storagemarkets.com, this is a new market intelligence tool that is designed to help storage companies make better strategic decisions. The concept is to bring together a cross company community of storage industry professionals to play in a virtual stock market where the stocks themselves represent specific outcomes for future technological developments. This technique is known as a ‘predictive market,’ and it has been successfully employed to predict election results and box office receipts.

Trading is free and anonymous, so feel free to join!

Rich

]]> By: c0t0d0s0.org http://storagemojo.com/2006/08/21/how-big-is-too-big-the-one-tb-disk/#comment-5984 c0t0d0s0.org Wed, 23 Aug 2006 10:09:13 +0000 http://storagemojo.com/?p=225#comment-5984 <strong>The challenges of the 1 Terabyte disk...</strong> At StorageMojo makes some interesting points about the upcoming 1 TB discs, but forgets the most important one. We reach the amount of storage (at least in even moderatly sized RAIDs) to have a high probablity of running into an unrecoverable read erro... The challenges of the 1 Terabyte disk…

At StorageMojo makes some interesting points about the upcoming 1 TB discs, but forgets the most important one. We reach the amount of storage (at least in even moderatly sized RAIDs) to have a high probablity of running into an unrecoverable read erro…

]]> By: Robin Harris http://storagemojo.com/2006/08/21/how-big-is-too-big-the-one-tb-disk/#comment-5976 Robin Harris Tue, 22 Aug 2006 22:01:34 +0000 http://storagemojo.com/?p=225#comment-5976 Yes, the pricing is a mystery. I don't blame vendors for wanting to make good margins, that's how they stay in business and continue bringing us great products. And disk drives are a marvel of technology, make no mistake. Yet looking at a disk drive BOM I can see where 2.5" drive costs would be the same (heads, electronics, connectors), where they should be slightly less (platters, arms, motors) and where they should be noticeably less (PC board, castings, packaging and shipping). Clearly the first two catagories make up the bulk of the drive cost, so where does the extra cost for, say, the 40GB drives that have been in mass production for several years come from? Warranty cost? Assembly? Based on the best quantity one pricing I could find on Froogle there is about a 50% uplift going from 3.5" to 2.5". Or, as the reader above suggested, are costs higher because the drive is smaller? I can see some learning curve advantages to 3.5", but 50% seems like a lot. I don't get it. And I agree that there are plenty of apps that could take advantage of SFF drives, if the pricing were closer. So, I repeat, what is the hangup? Yes, the pricing is a mystery. I don’t blame vendors for wanting to make good margins, that’s how they stay in business and continue bringing us great products. And disk drives are a marvel of technology, make no mistake.

Yet looking at a disk drive BOM I can see where 2.5″ drive costs would be the same (heads, electronics, connectors), where they should be slightly less (platters, arms, motors) and where they should be noticeably less (PC board, castings, packaging and shipping). Clearly the first two catagories make up the bulk of the drive cost, so where does the extra cost for, say, the 40GB drives that have been in mass production for several years come from? Warranty cost? Assembly?

Based on the best quantity one pricing I could find on Froogle there is about a 50% uplift going from 3.5″ to 2.5″. Or, as the reader above suggested, are costs higher because the drive is smaller? I can see some learning curve advantages to 3.5″, but 50% seems like a lot.

I don’t get it. And I agree that there are plenty of apps that could take advantage of SFF drives, if the pricing were closer. So, I repeat, what is the hangup?

]]> By: hmurchison http://storagemojo.com/2006/08/21/how-big-is-too-big-the-one-tb-disk/#comment-5940 hmurchison Tue, 22 Aug 2006 20:36:51 +0000 http://storagemojo.com/?p=225#comment-5940 I'm jazzed about the benefits of SFF drives until I see the price. It seems that a few discc manf are constantly harping about the benefits but I fall conspicuously silent regarding issues of total storage (73GB) price (%40-50 premiums) and rotational speed (mainly 10k). My clients like the idea of more drives for more iops but today we can't hit target array sizes with the small drives. Luckily Seagate did announce a 146GB Savvio drive which should be available soon enough but we're still lagging overall in size and price. Right now the benefits don't seem to outweigh the costs. I’m jazzed about the benefits of SFF drives until I see the price. It seems that a few discc manf are constantly harping about the benefits but I fall conspicuously silent regarding issues of total storage (73GB) price (%40-50 premiums) and rotational speed (mainly 10k). My clients like the idea of more drives for more iops but today we can’t hit target array sizes with the small drives. Luckily Seagate did announce a 146GB Savvio drive which should be available soon enough but we’re still lagging overall in size and price. Right now the benefits don’t seem to outweigh the costs.

]]> By: solinym http://storagemojo.com/2006/08/21/how-big-is-too-big-the-one-tb-disk/#comment-5937 solinym Tue, 22 Aug 2006 20:10:08 +0000 http://storagemojo.com/?p=225#comment-5937 Actually, kilo and other prefixes like that are for powers of ten. The new IEEE and I think SI units for powers of two are "kibibyte" and such. They are abbreviated KiB (note the extra i). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binary_prefix I think marketer use powers of 10 because it makes their stuff look bigger, like ending in $0.99 but in reverse. I doubt small hardware is cheaper. Obviously it takes higher density and higher-precision machines to make it. Why are laptops more expensive than desktops? Similar reasoning. Actually, kilo and other prefixes like that are for powers of ten. The new IEEE and I think SI units for powers of two are “kibibyte” and such. They are abbreviated KiB (note the extra i).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binary_prefix

I think marketer use powers of 10 because it makes their stuff look bigger, like ending in $0.99 but in reverse.

I doubt small hardware is cheaper. Obviously it takes higher density and higher-precision machines to make it. Why are laptops more expensive than desktops? Similar reasoning.

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